OpenAI's Delay, Manus's Retreat from China, Baichuan's Brain Drain: Three Undercurrents in July

 


This week, the AI industry didn't see any "world-changing" headlines, but three significant events quietly unfolded:

  • OpenAI once again postponed the release of its first open-source weight model.

  • Manus moved its headquarters from Beijing to Singapore, reducing its China team to just over 40 people.

  • Xie Jian, co-founder and CTO of Baichuan Intelligence, confirmed his departure, leaving only two members of the founding team.

These three events point to a common undercurrent: resource reallocation, compliance costs, and technical roadmap uncertainties. Below, we break down the key facts for peers, investors, or anyone concerned with the foundational infrastructure.

1. OpenAI Open-Source Model Further Delayed

On July 12, Sam Altman confirmed on X that the release was further postponed for "additional safety testing," without providing a new timeline.

  • Red teaming test cases have doubled to 28,000, with 41% related to disinformation spread.

  • The delay reflects a re-evaluation of open-source risks: once weights are released, they cannot be recalled.

2. Manus's Strategic Retreat

Effective July 11, the Beijing office scaled down to a dozen people, domestic social media accounts were cleared, and the official website became inaccessible to mainland China IPs.

  • Among 120 China-based employees, over 40 core technical staff are relocating to Singapore, with the rest facing layoffs (N+3 / 2N severance).

  • New positions in Singapore offer monthly salaries of $13,000–$22,000, primarily due to the inability to acquire the latest NVIDIA chips.

  • Collaboration on the Chinese version of Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has been suspended.

3. Baichuan Intelligence's Continued Brain Drain

Xie Jian (former Baidu Fenghao architect), co-founder and CTO, confirmed his departure, leaving only Wang Xiaochuan and Ru Liyun from the seven-person founding team.

  • The previous co-founder to leave was Jiao Ke (March 2024).

  • Since completing its $300 million Series A1 round in October 2023, the company has not disclosed any new financing.

  • Several executives have also left or started new projects during the same period, indicating a simultaneous exodus of talent and capital.

Three Signals, Same Boundary Conditions

  • Compute Sovereignty Determines Company Location: If you can't get the chips, move closer to where they are.

  • Open Source vs. Safety Remains a Tug-of-War: Better to miss out on buzz than cross regulatory red lines.

  • Talent and Capital Synchronously Clearing Out: Funding windows are narrowing; rational players are choosing to exit.

If you are working on an early-stage AI project, consider these three points as external indicators:

  • Is your chip delivery cycle longer than 8 weeks? Consider relocating.

  • Are open-source weights part of your roadmap? Prepare two sets of compliance assessment frameworks.

  • Was your founding team's option pool last topped up before Q1 2024? It's time to discuss new round terms.

July is not yet halfway through, and while there are no major headlines, new boundaries are everywhere in the industry.

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